Japan's mobile service revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% from 2024 to 2029, largely driven by increased mobile data service income. According to GlobalData's Japan Mobile Broadband Forecast Model for the first quarter of 2025, Japan's total mobile service revenue is anticipated to rise from $46.9 billion in 2024 to $54.5 billion in 2029.
The surge in mobile data service revenue, expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.8% over the same period, is fueled by the continuous increase in mobile internet subscriptions, higher data service consumption through high-speed wireless networks, and particularly the growing adoption of high ARPU 5G services. GlobalData telecom analyst Sarwat Zeeshan highlighted, "Japan's average monthly mobile data usage is forecasted to climb from 14.3GB in 2024 to 25.9GB in 2029. This growth is facilitated by the expanding availability and adoption of 5G services, alongside telecom operators enhancing data-centric offerings through 5G service plans, thereby increasing consumption of online video and social media content via smartphones."
While 4G will continue to hold the largest share of domestic mobile subscriptions until 2024, 5G subscriptions are expected to surpass 4G in 2025, accounting for 87.2% of total mobile subscriptions by 2029. This shift is supported by telecom operators' extensive 5G network expansions and the broad availability and affordability of 5G service plans.
Furthermore, the evolution and expansion of 5G networks will invigorate the adoption of M2M/IoT services in Japan as enterprises explore new IoT/M2M use cases enabled by 5G networks. As Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) focus on leveraging M2M/IoT opportunities, M2M/IoT subscriptions are projected to grow at a CAGR of 12.9% during the forecast period.
NTT Docomo, emphasizing 5G network expansion and M2M/IoT services, is set to lead the mobile service market by subscriber numbers through 2029. The company is also collaborating with equipment vendors such as SK Telecom, Fujitsu, NEC, and Nokia on joint trials for potential frequency bands for 6G communications.
Alongside these developments, Japan's telecommunications landscape is also witnessing regulatory and policy shifts geared towards enhancing digital infrastructure and stimulating innovation, potentially accelerating the transition toward advanced connectivity solutions in the coming years.
